Taking a typical private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50 liters as an example, after this round of price adjustment, filling up one tank will save about 2.5 yuan.
Since the current pricing cycle, international oil prices have fluctuated and declined. On April 29th, the official website of the National Development and Reform Commission announced that starting from 24:00 today, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be reduced by 70 yuan per ton. According to Longzhong Information, the corresponding price adjustment for 92 octane gasoline, 95 octane gasoline, and 0 octane diesel will be reduced by 0.05 to 0.06 yuan per liter.
This price adjustment is the second downward adjustment of the year and has also halted the previous two consecutive oil price increases. At present, domestic finished oil prices have undergone nine rounds of adjustment, presenting a pattern of “five rises, two falls, and two stalls”.
This round of price adjustment coincides with the two days before the May Day holiday. After the adjustment, the cost of oil for end users will be reduced. According to Longzhong Information, taking a typical private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50 liters as an example, filling up one tank of fuel will save about 2.5 yuan; According to models that consume 7-8 liters of fuel per 100 kilometers in urban areas, the average cost per 100 kilometers traveled is reduced by about 0.4 yuan. For large logistics transport vehicles with a full load of 50 tons, the average fuel cost will be reduced by about 2.4 yuan for every 100 kilometers traveled.
During this pricing cycle, international oil prices have been weak and volatile. On the supply side, geopolitical conflicts are gradually easing, and Israel is taking limited military action against Iran. Geopolitical concerns first rise and then fall, but instability still exists; In addition, multiple OPEC+oil producing countries are firmly promoting production reduction, and the pattern of supply tightening has continued. However, on the demand side, although US crude oil inventories have decreased, the peak season for traditional fuel consumption has not yet arrived, and short-term demand remains weak, with limited impact on oil prices. Overall, the bearish game of fundamentals is still evident, with the average price of attached oil species moving downwards during the pricing cycle. According to Jin Lianchuang’s calculation, as of the tenth working day on April 29th, the average price of reference crude oil varieties was 85.87 US dollars per barrel, with a change rate of -1.68%.
The next round of refined oil price adjustment will start at 24:00 on May 15th. However, due to the fact that the next round of price adjustments spans the May Day holiday and is relatively long, coupled with limited guidance on the news surface, the final result of the new round of price adjustments is highly uncertain.
Longzhong Information believes that the impact of the Iran Israel conflict has basically come to an end, and the support from favorable geographical factors has been reduced. The market’s focus has returned to fundamentals. In addition, the global economic data has performed poorly, putting pressure on the outlook for crude oil demand, and it is expected that the next round of refined oil price adjustments will have a high probability of reduction.
Jin Lianchuang stated that in the future, considering the continued weakening of supply concerns caused by geopolitical factors in the market, the US interest rate hike under high inflation is currently unlikely to continue to exert pressure on the crude oil market. In the near future, international oil prices may continue to fluctuate within a certain range, limiting guidance for the domestic market.