On April 19th, according to the financial data of the first quarter by Galaxy Securities Review, the overall expenditure growth rate of the first and second accounts in the first quarter was 5.6% (previously 2.9%), the highest since 2023. 1、 The overall broad income growth rate of the two accounts has narrowed slightly by -2.6% (previous value -2.9%), but based on the pre issuance of fiscal debt and high expenditure, the difference in broad income and expenditure growth rate has reached 8.2% (previous value 5.8%), which is also the highest level since 2023. Display the positive expansion of fiscal policy since the beginning of the year. At present, in the face of the impact of the US tariff policy at the beginning of the year, whether from the perspective of maintaining employment or stabilizing growth, it may be necessary to increase the debt limit again through fiscal policy within the year. We estimate that from the perspective of ensuring employment, an incremental policy hedge of about 1 trillion yuan may be needed, while from the perspective of ensuring the achievement of the 5% economic growth target, an incremental policy of about 1.5-2 trillion yuan may be needed. Therefore, the April Politburo meeting is likely to further propose accelerating the issuance of existing debt to leave room for subsequent policies. Plus the special treasury bond just launched, the second quarter or the peak of government bond issuance.
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