On April 12th, despite the Trump administration’s decision this week to postpone high tariffs on numerous trading partners, Wall Street economists still maintain their predictions of a significant slowdown in US economic growth and warn that the risk of economic recession remains high. Morgan Stanley, BNP Paribas, and RBC Capital Markets released forecasts on Thursday, ranging from 0.1% to 0.6% for the growth rate of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2025, and from 0.5% to 1.5% for the growth rate in 2026. They predict that the unemployment rate will rise to nearly 5% next year and expect inflation rates to rise in the coming quarters. Will tariffs and uncertainty like this continue for a long time? If so, then we predict that the United States will fall into an economic recession, “Douglas Porter, Chief Economist of BMO Financial Group, wrote in a report on Friday.” Currently, we still tend to predict that US GDP growth will remain below 1% for several consecutive quarters
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