On April 4th, Citigroup reiterated its forecast for quarterly Brent crude oil prices, which are $68, $65, and $60, respectively. Under basic circumstances, the outlook for crude oil prices in the second quarter of 2025 remains unchanged at $68 per barrel. The sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, as well as the final tightening of oil supply through the purchase of Russian oil, offset the impact of commodity tariffs. A package of tariffs of only 10% could potentially reduce the expected global oil demand growth in 2025 from the current 900000 barrels per day to 600000 barrels per day, with further downside risks in the event of retaliation.
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