On March 25th, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) reported that calculations show that if the uncertainty caused by tariffs and government spending cuts persists, it may have a negative impact of 0.94 percentage points on US economic output, slowing down the real GDP growth rate to 1.7% in 2025. This impact is not limited to the United States, but may also affect other countries, increasing the risk of global economic downturn. Uncertainty shocks can also affect macroeconomic policy-making. The Federal Reserve may also choose to wait and see in the face of uncertainty, which may lead to policy adjustments lagging behind and pose greater challenges to economic growth and inflation management.
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