Zhan Debin believes that in the next three years, South Korea will still face significant economic and political pressure.
On May 10th, two years ago, as a candidate for the opposition National Power Party in South Korea, Yoon Seok yeol won the 20th presidential election with a narrow margin of less than 1 percentage point, marking the beginning of a five-year presidential term.
Now, two years have passed. In the controversy, Yin Xiyue’s positive rating for her policies hovered around 30%, even dropping to a bottom of 23%, while her negative rating remained above 60%.
In the view of Zhan Debin, Vice President of the Shanghai Korean Peninsula Research Association and Director of the Korean Peninsula Research Center at Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, in the past two years, the Yin Xiyue government has been deeply impressed by the many controversies caused by the values diplomacy promoted by external forces and the immaturity of domestic policies. How will Yin Xiyue perform in the next three years? Zhan Debin believes that there is a high possibility that the Yin Xiyue government will continue the policies of the past two years in domestic, foreign, and economic affairs.
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Two years of constant controversy
At the beginning of his tenure two years ago, Yoon Seok yeol broke tradition by relocating the South Korean presidential office from Blue House to Longshan. For the past two years, the government of Yin Xiyue has held high the banner of “National Reform”, hoping to promote reforms in multiple fields. In the economic field, totally different from the income led growth economic policy advocated by Zaiyin government, Yin Xiyue government emphasizes enterprise led growth, that is, more care for the interests of enterprises. At the same time, he accelerated the promotion of the three major reforms of labor, pension, and education, and also vigorously promoted the expansion of enrollment in medical colleges, cutting through the difficult bone of medical reform.
The controversy surrounding these reforms has never ceased. At the end of July 2022, the government of Yin Xiyue took office and vigorously promoted education reform, aiming to lower the age of primary school enrollment to 5 years old to cope with the aging population and narrow the gap in preschool education. However, due to strong opposition from student parents and education experts, the school system reform plan has been thwarted.
In 2023, the government has once again focused on promoting the weekly working hour reform. At that time, the government of Yin Xiyue planned to redefine the management standards for overtime hours of up to 12 hours per week on a monthly, quarterly, semi annual, and annual basis, supplemented by a “centralized vacation” system. According to this plan, workers may work up to 69 hours per week. But once it was launched, the attention of the South Korean people and public opinion mostly focused on “69 hours”, with strong social feedback, especially the opposition from trade unions rising wave by wave. Finally, eight months later, the South Korean government decided to maintain the current “52 hour weekly working hour limit” system framework, and the progress of working hour reform was temporarily postponed.
In 2024, the government of Yoon Seok yeol has once again targeted the reform at the healthcare industry, hoping to alleviate the problem of regional medical resource imbalance in South Korea for many years by forcefully promoting the expansion plan for medical students. But the South Korean medical community is not buying it. With the strikes of interns and resident physicians, as well as the strikes of medical students and professors entering their third month, the Yin Xiyue government has had to make some concessions, such as adjusting the number of recruits and calling for dialogue, to ease the conflict between the medical profession and the government. But the Korean Medical Association, which initiated the strike, did not accept the government’s signal of reconciliation.
Professor Huang Fei, Director of the University of Seoul Graduate School of Science, believes that during the two years of the Yoon Seok yeol administration, the South Korean economy has been in decline. After entering 2024, prices have increased significantly, and basic living expenses such as water, electricity, and gasoline have increased. In addition, the recent significant price increase in agricultural products has deeply troubled the South Korean people. At the same time, the South Korean government’s attitude towards healthcare reform has also made the South Korean people feel very puzzled and tired. In her view, in the past two years, the Yin Xiyue government has almost handed in a blank sheet. Not only have major national and political issues such as promised healthcare reform, education reform, and restoring people’s livelihoods not been pushed forward as planned, but there have also been no highlights in diplomacy.
Zhan Debin told First Financial reporters that compared to the previous government, the values diplomacy of the Yin Xiyue government is particularly clear and firm. “For example, in terms of US Japan policy, despite domestic and peripheral pressures, Yin Xiyue does not care. This is a huge difference from the previous government. The Yin Xiyue government’s diplomacy is tilted towards the West.”
Because of his adherence to values diplomacy, Zhan Debin believes that the Yin Xiyue government also cooperates with diplomacy to a certain extent in economic policies. For example, in handling China South Korea relations, he has repeatedly emphasized the need to reduce dependence on the Chinese market. “To achieve this goal, it is necessary for the South Korean economic and trade community to shift the export market and deepen economic and trade cooperation with other Western countries. However, practice is difficult. Economic development has its own laws. As an export-oriented economy, South Korea is greatly affected by the international situation, and slight changes in the external environment, such as rising oil prices and regional conflicts, will naturally affect the South Korean economy and supply chain. He (Yoon Seok yeol) may have underestimated the risks in this regard,” said Zhan Debin.
According to data from the South Korean Bureau of Statistics, South Korea’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 1.4% year-on-year in 2023, the first time in 25 years that it was lower than Japan.
Will there be any changes in the next three years
On April 11th, the results of the 22nd South Korean National Assembly elections showed that the largest opposition party, the Common Democratic Party, and its satellite political parties, continued to maintain their position as the largest party in the parliament; The ruling party of Yin Xiyue, the National Power Party and its satellite political parties, suffered a disastrous defeat. The situation of the South Korean parliament being dominated by North Korea will continue for another three years.
Looking ahead to Yoon Seok yeol’s remaining three-year presidential term, Jang Debin analyzed that the possibility of changes in South Korea’s foreign and domestic affairs is extremely small. He gave an example that after the failure of the congressional elections, there were no personnel changes in the Diplomatic Security Office responsible for diplomacy in the Presidential Office, indicating that the diplomatic decision-making team of the Yin Xiyue administration has not changed, and continuing the current foreign policy is a high probability event.
“The same goes for domestic affairs,” said Zhan Debin. “However, the winning opposition party will further restrain him in Congress and also lay out the general election plan in three years’ time.”
Therefore, Zhan Debin believes that there will be more highlights in South Korea in the next three years. He analyzed, “Yin Xiyue’s foundation within the ruling party is not solid, and there are also voices of dissatisfaction with him within the party. Especially for the newly elected members of parliament after this election, their term will run until 2028, and Yin Xiyue’s presidential term will end in 2027. This means that the future political fate of the current group of ruling party members of parliament is not entirely determined by Yin Xiyue. Their independence will be stronger than the previous term. Therefore, if the bill proposed by the opposition party meets public opinion, it is not ruled out that someone within the ruling party may switch sides.”
At the end of April, Yoon Seok yeol held a meeting with Lee Jae myung, the leader of the largest opposition party in South Korea, for about 135 minutes. This was the first meeting between the two since Yoon Seok yeol took office as president. Of course, it was not surprising that their first meeting ended in failure.
Zhan Debin told reporters that the meeting between Yin Xiyue and the opposition party was a helpless move. “But the key to dialogue is execution. In the future, opposition parties will test Yoon Seok yeol by launching a ‘special inspection bill’ on a series of controversial events in South Korean society. If the latter frequently uses his veto power, it will inevitably lead to public resentment. According to Yoon Seok yeol’s personality, it will definitely not cause opposition parties to investigate him.” He analyzed, “There is currently no sign of improvement in South Korea’s external environment in the next three years. In addition, the US interest rate remains high, and South Korea’s economic and political pressure is still considerable.”