The rapid population growth of Changfeng County, a county under the jurisdiction of Hefei City, is closely related to BYD’s layout.
Recently, various regions have been releasing population data for 2023. After sorting out the key cities that have already released relevant data, First Financial Statistics found that the top four cities with population growth in 2023 are Hefei (increasing by 219000 people), Zhengzhou (increasing by 180000 people), Hangzhou (increasing by 146000 people), and Chengdu (increasing by 135000 people), all of which are new first tier cities and provincial capital cities.
Overall, new first tier cities have become highlands for population inflows. The rapid development of emerging and high-tech industries in these cities has driven population agglomeration.
Significant driving effect of the new energy vehicle industry
According to data released by Hefei, in 2023, the permanent population of Hefei was 9.853 million, an increase of 219000 people or 2.3% compared to 2022. In the past three years, the net increase in permanent residents in the city has continued to rise, from 95000 in 2021 and 169000 in 2022 to 219000 in 2023, an increase of 50000 compared to the previous year.
Data shows that in the net increase in population in Hefei last year, over 90% of the population migrated to Hefei. In 2023, the city’s net increase in migration population was 20.1 million people, accounting for 91.8% of the net increase in permanent residents, an increase of 66000 people compared to the previous year, reflecting the continuously strengthening population attraction of Hefei.
Lin Fei, a researcher at the Anhui Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed that changes in industrial layout will drive changes in the economy and population density. Population growth in Hefei is closely related to industrial development. In recent years, Hefei’s overall development strategy has been relatively clear, accurately grasping the laws of industrial development. On the one hand, it has done a good job in clustering and upgrading existing industries, and on the other hand, it has vigorously developed emerging industries, including new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, integrated circuits, etc.
Taking the new energy industry as an example, in 2023, the production of new energy vehicles in Hefei was 746000 units, a year-on-year increase of 1.4 times, ranking among the top five in the country.
Among them, the rapid population growth of Changfeng County under the jurisdiction of Hefei City is closely related to BYD’s layout. In July 2021, the BYD Hefei factory project settled in Xiatang Town, Changfeng County. In 2023, the GDP of Changfeng County will exceed 90 billion yuan, reaching 94.643 billion yuan, and the goal of 100 billion yuan is within reach. According to Guangming Daily, in 2023, Changfeng produced and sold nearly 500000 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of nearly 400%; Achieved a production value exceeding 62 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of over 320%. The entry of “giants” has triggered a “fission” effect in the industrial chain. Currently, Changfeng has nearly 200 upstream and downstream enterprises in the new energy vehicle industry chain, with a total industry chain output value exceeding 70 billion yuan.
In terms of population, data shows that at the end of last year, the permanent population of Changfeng County was 833000, an increase of 33000 people compared to the previous year.
“The automotive industry chain is very long, and the role of the automotive industry in driving local economy is very obvious,” Lin Fei said.
Last year, the population of districts such as Baohe and Shushan in the urban area of Hefei grew rapidly, with an increase of 47000 people in Baohe District. In recent years, Baohe District has actively developed the new energy vehicle industry. Five listed companies, including Jiangqi Group, Ankai Bus, Guoxuan High tech, Juyi Technology, and Evergreen Group, mainly engaged in automotive and parts business, are all located in Baohe District.
New first tier cities have a high population attraction
Last year, the permanent population of Zhengzhou exceeded the 13 million mark for the first time, reaching 13.08 million people, with a population increase of 180000 people. The increase currently ranks second in the country and has become the first city in northern China with a population increase.
According to Henan Daily, in Zhengzhou, the strategic emerging industries represented by new energy vehicles and electronic information industry continue to strengthen their driving and supporting role. BYD’s largest production capacity and most labor-intensive vehicle production base is gradually put into operation and has achieved results, driving the annual production of complete vehicles in Zhengzhou to exceed 800000, an increase of 50% (the production of new energy vehicles exceeds 320000, an increase of over 300%).
Last year, the population of Hangzhou increased by 146000 people. Looking at the counties, Yuhang and Xiaoshan ranked in the top two in terms of increment. Last year, Yuhang increased by 41000 people, the largest increase in the city; Xiaoshan District has added 30000 people. According to Tang Hairu, Vice Chairman of the Zhejiang Urban Science Research Association, Yuhang’s rapid growth is closely related to the rapid development of the digital economy and the construction of the West City Science and Technology Innovation Corridor. The digital economy industry is mainly located in Yuhang District, and in the process of striving to become a comprehensive national science center in Hangzhou, it will also drive the demand for high-end scientific researchers. The industrial manufacturing industry in Xiaoshan District has developed strongly, and in recent years, it has been closely integrated with digital technology to accelerate transformation and upgrading. At the same time, through the integration of Xiaobin (Xiaoshan, Binjiang), the industries in Binjiang District are accelerating their spillover, and the cooperation between the two places is leveraging their complementary advantages.
Last August, Xiaoshan held a conference on new industrialization, proposing to strive for double billion yuan and rebuild the new Xiaoshan industry: five years later, the industrial added value will exceed 100 billion yuan, and within five years, the cumulative industrial investment will exceed 100 billion yuan.
Last year, the permanent population of Chengdu increased by 135000 people. According to the currently released data, among the 20 administrative divisions in Chengdu, Shuangliu District ranked first with a permanent population of 2.7937 million people and an increase of 40100 people. Experts analyze that in recent years, the development momentum in the south of Chengdu has been strong, with Shuangliu located in the south, and people have good expectations for it.
From the population changes in the aforementioned cities, the development of industries, especially high-tech and emerging industries, is the key to driving population agglomeration and growth. For example, BYD, which has developed rapidly in recent years, has laid out in multiple new first tier cities and strong second tier cities, driving rapid population growth in the local area.
On the other hand, the development of high-tech and emerging industries requires a large number of talents. Strong provincial capital cities have numerous universities and a large number of talents, which is also an important factor attracting many large enterprises to layout. The provincial capital cities in the central and western regions, including Hefei, Zhengzhou, and Chengdu, are all located in populous provinces, and the population hinterland and growth potential of provincial capital cities are also relatively large.
Peng Peng, Executive Chairman of the Guangdong Provincial Association for Economic Reform Research, analyzed that overall, new first tier cities and strong second tier cities have developed rapidly in recent years, becoming new engines of regional economic development. The prominent development of high-tech industries in these cities means that there are many opportunities and new employment opportunities, attracting a large number of talents to flow in.
Among them, in the process of industrialization and urbanization in central and western provinces, the population of ordinary prefecture level cities within the province has flowed out, with a portion of the population flowing to the southeast coastal areas and a considerable portion flowing to the provincial capital of the province. Peng Peng said that the income gap between strong provincial capitals in the central and western regions and large coastal cities is getting smaller and smaller. The infrastructure is very complete, and resources such as education and medical care are very good, and the cost of living is lower. In addition, returning to the provincial capital city where one’s hometown is located for work brings them closer to home. Overall, these cities are becoming increasingly attractive.