On the evening of April 26th, Air China (601111. SH) announced that it had signed an agreement with COMAC to purchase 100 C919 aircraft from the latter.
This is the second domestic airline to place a one-time order for 100 domestically produced C919 aircraft.
In September 2023, as the world’s first user of C919 large passenger aircraft, China Eastern Airlines (600115. SH) signed the first batch of 5 C919 aircraft in 2021 and ordered an additional 100 C919 aircraft from COMAC. At that time, it was also the largest single order received by C919.
Nowadays, Air China has also placed the same number of orders with COMAC, which means that domestically produced C919 aircraft will receive more support from domestic airlines.
The C919 aircraft was only put into commercial operation in May 2023, and currently there are a total of 5 flying in the fleet of China Eastern Airlines, mainly operating three commercial routes in China.
It was also around 2023 that orders for C919 aircraft began to explode.
At the Zhuhai Airshow in November 2022, COMAC signed an order for a total of 300 C919 aircraft with seven aircraft leasing companies, including Guoyin Jinzhu, ICBC Jinzhu, Jianxin Jinzhu, Jiaoyin Jinzhu, CMB Jinzhu, Puyin Jinzhu, and Suyin Jinzhu.
In April 2023, Hainan Airlines Group signed an order for 60 C919 aircraft with COMAC. In September 2023, COMAC received a large order of 30 aircraft from Brunei Qiji Airlines, including 5 C919 aircraft.
In 2024, Xizang Airlines, which has the most experience in plateau operations, also signed an order with COMAC for 50 domestic large aircraft plateau aircraft, including 40 C919 plateau aircraft and 10 ARJ-21 plateau aircraft.
At the main forum of the 2023 Pujiang Innovation Forum held in September last year, Chairman He Dongfeng of COMAC revealed that the latest order quantity for C919 has reached 1061 units.
According to the author’s understanding, not all C919 orders with over a thousand aircraft are confirmed orders, but the newly signed C919 orders in the past two years have all been confirmed orders with a deposit paid. Paying the deposit also means that the delivery work of C919 must be effectively fulfilled, and COMAC’s production capacity must start to ramp up.
In 2023, COMAC only delivered 5 C919 aircraft to China Eastern Airlines. In March of this year, another one was delivered, which means that last year’s annual production was 5 aircraft, which is still far from the delivery volume of Airbus and Boeing, which often delivers 100 aircraft.
Regarding this, COMAC officials have revealed to the author that the delivery rhythm of any newly developed aircraft is from small batch delivery to large batch delivery, and the increase in production will also be a slow process. Therefore, the delivery volume of the C919 in the first year will not be too much, and it will increase year by year in the future.
So, how many C919 aircraft will COMAC deliver to domestic airlines this year? How far away is the large-scale commercial use of C919 in the civil aviation market?
According to the author’s understanding, China Eastern Airlines, the first user of C919 aircraft, plans to increase the fleet size of C919 aircraft to 10 this year. The other two airlines, Air China and China Southern Airlines, among the three major airlines, also mentioned at this year’s internal work meeting that they will introduce the first C919 aircraft this year. They are required to do a good job in C919 resource reserves and personnel training to ensure the smooth introduction and safe operation of the aircraft.
Jinpeng Airlines, a subsidiary of Hainan Airlines Group, recently made it clear that it will receive its first C919 passenger plane in the fourth quarter of this year.
This means that COMAC will produce at least 8 C919 aircraft this year, doubling its production from last year.
Regarding the future production capacity planning of the C919 aircraft, Zhang Yujin, Deputy General Manager of COMAC, revealed last year that the plan for the C919 is to have an annual production capacity of 150 aircraft over the next five years.
If calculated based on this, it is not very far from the large-scale commercial use of domestically produced C919 aircraft.
However, some industry insiders have pointed out that the C919 also faces the following pressures in order to deliver in large quantities.
One is from supply chain management. Many systems of the C919 aircraft rely on a global supply chain to ensure safety, including the engine, landing gear, air conditioning, flight control systems, etc. Currently, the global aviation supply chain is still very tight, and it is expected to ease in the next year or two.
The second is the maturity of COMAC’s own production process, including the quality correction of various components and systems in production, and the need for system upgrades and personnel training to increase production capacity.
The third is product maturity. Airplanes may face various problems during operation, especially new ones, which is a common growth concern faced by every new model. Even mature models still need continuous improvement and optimization.
The fourth is the level of market acceptance. Few airlines are willing to bear the potential risks brought by new manufacturers and models, which is also one of the important reasons why it is relatively difficult to open up the market after the development of a new aircraft.
However, as Li Yangmin, General Manager of China Eastern Airlines, said, “A good airplane is made by flying, and it needs to be constantly practiced, revised, and improved during the flight process.” We believe that the C919 aircraft will also continuously improve its performance with the cooperation of the airline and manufacturer, ensuring safety while improving economy. This is also the most important support for the large-scale commercial use of domestic aircraft.